Sandstorms, droughts, and big big ships have implications for the carrying capacity of the world. Which is to say: how many people can be alive at once.
I have told just about anyone who spends much time talking to me outside work or other official capacities about the ways I think that just-in-time manufacturing and other LEAN changes in our economies have left us open to far more risk than anyone realizes.
But I have never done anything in-depth to write it up or justify it, beyond stringing together a few anecdotes.
This post is a wonderful addition to my talking points and an example of the kind of work I could do myself to deepen my understanding.
I have a lot of complex feelings about Just In Time manufacturing. I've spent my entire life living in south Florida and have lived through... uh.. probably a dozen hurricanes, and saw the supply chain disruptions that come when a hurricane renders I-95 impassable. That said, there are often enough delivery avenues that even the loss of multiple ones simultaneously is mostly manageable with a bit of rationing. The US is a net Food Exporter and... man we create a lot of calories here in the US. So even if the oceans became completely intraversible I don't actually expect any famine. We're even gas exporters now so I wouldn't expect much disruption.
Conversely, I think something like a major solar flare mat shut down phones and delicate electronics. Possibly cars as well, but there's only so much a modern society can do to harden infrastructure from those types of risks.
I'm probably thinking with my "first world" perspective. When I complain about the lack of resilience in our supply chains, I'm not so worried about outright famine as how easily normal day-to-day life can be affected, and how we could see limits on products. Think of the way we couldn't get toilet paper during COVID or how we might not be able to get certain electronics or specific foods that are not grown / harvested in the US.
I have told just about anyone who spends much time talking to me outside work or other official capacities about the ways I think that just-in-time manufacturing and other LEAN changes in our economies have left us open to far more risk than anyone realizes.
But I have never done anything in-depth to write it up or justify it, beyond stringing together a few anecdotes.
This post is a wonderful addition to my talking points and an example of the kind of work I could do myself to deepen my understanding.
Thank you for sharing it!
I have a lot of complex feelings about Just In Time manufacturing. I've spent my entire life living in south Florida and have lived through... uh.. probably a dozen hurricanes, and saw the supply chain disruptions that come when a hurricane renders I-95 impassable. That said, there are often enough delivery avenues that even the loss of multiple ones simultaneously is mostly manageable with a bit of rationing. The US is a net Food Exporter and... man we create a lot of calories here in the US. So even if the oceans became completely intraversible I don't actually expect any famine. We're even gas exporters now so I wouldn't expect much disruption.
Conversely, I think something like a major solar flare mat shut down phones and delicate electronics. Possibly cars as well, but there's only so much a modern society can do to harden infrastructure from those types of risks.
I'm probably thinking with my "first world" perspective. When I complain about the lack of resilience in our supply chains, I'm not so worried about outright famine as how easily normal day-to-day life can be affected, and how we could see limits on products. Think of the way we couldn't get toilet paper during COVID or how we might not be able to get certain electronics or specific foods that are not grown / harvested in the US.